Low-Entropy Hydration Shells at the Spike RBD's Binding Site May Reveal the Contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2 Variants

The infectivity of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is primarily determined by the binding affinity between the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor. Here, through screening off pseudo hydrophilic groups on protein surfaces, the distribution of low-entropy regions on hydration shells of the ACE2 receptor and the RBDs of multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants was demonstrated. Shape matching between the low-entropy hydration shells of multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants and the ACE2 receptor has been identified as a mechanism that drives hydrophobic attraction between the RBDs and the ACE2 receptor, which estimates the binding affinity. Low-entropy regions of the hydration shells, which play important roles in determining the binding of other viruses and their receptors, are demonstrated. The RBD-ACE2 binding is thus found to be guided by hydrophobic collapse between the shape-matched low-entropy regions of the hydration shells of the proteins. A measure of the low-entropy status of the hydration shells can be estimated by calculating genuine hydrophilic groups within the binding sites. An important indicator of the contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2 variants is the low-entropy level of its hydration shells at the spike protein binding site.