Radiomics from dual-energy CT-derived iodine maps predict lymph node metastasis in head and neck squamous cell...

To develop and validate an iodine maps-based radiomics nomogram for preoperatively predicting cervical lymph node metastasis (LNM) in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC).

A total of 278 patients who pathologically confirmed as HNSCC were retrospectively recruited from two medical centers between June 2012 and July 2022. The training set (n = 152) and internal set (n = 67) were randomly selected from medical center A, and the patients from medical center B were enrolled as the external set (n = 69). The minority group in the training set was balanced by the adaptive synthetic sampling (ADASYN) approach. Radiomics features were extracted from dual-energy CT-derived iodine maps at arterial phase (AP) and venous phase (VP), respectively. Three radiomics signatures were constructed to predict the LNM by using a random forest algorithm. The independent clinical predictors for LNM were identified by multivariate analysis and combined with radiomics signatures to establish a radiomic-clinical nomogram. The performance of radiomic-clinical nomogram was evaluated with respect to its discrimination and clinical usefulness.

The AP-VP-incorporated radiomics model exhibited a great predictive performance for LNM prediction with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.885 (95% CI, 0.836-0.933) in ADASYN-training set and confirmed in all validation sets. The nomogram that incorporated AP-VP radiomics signatures, CT-reported LN status, and histological grades yielded AUCs of 0.920 (95% CI, 0.881-0.959) in ADASYN-training set, 0.858 (95% CI, 0.771-0.944) in internal validation, and 0.849 (95% CI, 0.752-0.946) in external validation, with good calibration in all cohorts (p > 0.05). Decision curve analyses indicated the nomogram was clinically useful. In addition, the predictive performance of clinical-radiomics nomogram was also validation in combing cohorts. Stratified analysis confirmed the stability of nomogram, particularly in group negative for CT-reported LNM.

Clinical-radiomics nomogram based on iodine maps exhibited promising performance in predicting LNM and providing valuable information for making individualized therapy decisions.