Habitat specialization predicts demographic response and vulnerability of floodplain birds in Amazonia

The annual flooding cycle of Amazonian rivers sustains the largest floodplains on Earth, which harbour a unique bird community. Recent studies suggest that habitat specialization drove different patterns of population structure and gene flow in floodplain birds. However, the lack of a direct estimate of habitat affinity prevents a proper test of its effects on population histories. In this work, we used occurrence data, satellite images and genomic data (ultra-conserved elements) from 24 bird species specialized on a variety of seasonally flooded environments to classify habitat affinities and test its influence on evolutionary histories of Amazonian floodplain birds. We demonstrate that birds with higher specialization in river islands and dynamic environments have gone through more recent demographic expansion and currently have less genetic diversity than floodplain generalist birds. Our results indicate that there is an intrinsic relationship between habitat affinity and environmental dynamics, influencing patterns of population structure, demographic history and genetic diversity. Within the floodplains, historical landscape changes have had more severe impacts on island specialists, making them more vulnerable to current and future anthropogenic changes, as those imposed by hydroelectric dams in the Amazon Basin.