The global mismatch between equitable carbon dioxide removal liability and capacity

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Environmental Policy
• Sustainable Development

Background:

• Limiting global warming to 1.5°C necessitates substantial atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR).
• Current understanding of country-level CDR requirements and capacities remains limited.
• Net-zero emissions targets depend on effective CDR strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify country-level carbon dioxide removal (CDR) needs for achieving 1.5°C.
• To assess domestic CDR deployment capacities at the national level.
• To explore equitable allocation of global CDR pathways among 170 countries.

Main Methods:

• Allocation of global CDR pathways based on six equity principles.
• Assessment of national biophysical and geophysical capacities for CDR deployment.
• Estimation of land and geological storage limitations for equitable CDR contributions.

Main Results:

• Equitable CDR allocations represent ~4% of national emissions in 2030, rising to ~17% in 2040.
• 15% of countries lack sufficient land, and 40% lack adequate geological storage for equitable CDR.
• A projected demand for 6 GtCO2 carbon credits between 2020-2050 highlights capacity mismatches.

Conclusions:

• Equitable CDR distribution challenges national capacities, particularly land and storage.
• Development of diverse CDR technologies is crucial to bridge the gap between CDR liabilities and capacities.
• International carbon trading for CDR is imperative due to projected global demand and national limitations.