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The costs of "costless" climate mitigation
Matthew J Kotchen1, James A Rising2, Gernot Wagner3
1School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|November 30, 2023
Summary
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and economic models present differing estimates for the costs associated with reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding these discrepancies is crucial for effective climate policy development.
Area of Science:
- Climate Change Economics
- Environmental Policy Analysis
Background:
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides comprehensive assessments on climate science and policy implications.
- Economic models are frequently used to forecast the financial impacts of climate mitigation strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze and compare the projected costs of emissions reduction as outlined by the IPCC and prominent economic modeling frameworks.
- To identify key factors contributing to the divergence in cost estimations between these two approaches.
Main Methods:
- Comparative analysis of IPCC assessment reports and outputs from leading integrated assessment models (IAMs).
- Review of literature on economic modeling of climate change mitigation.
Main Results:
- Significant discrepancies exist between IPCC-reported emissions reduction costs and those generated by economic models.
- Differences stem from variations in assumptions regarding technological progress, policy stringency, and economic impacts.
Conclusions:
- The divergence in cost estimates highlights the need for greater transparency and standardization in economic modeling for climate policy.
- Further research is required to reconcile these differences and improve the accuracy of future climate economic projections.
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