Interpretable machine learning models for predicting 90-day death in patients in the intensive care unit with...

This study aims to develop a machine learning-based model for predicting mortality risk in patients with epilepsy admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), providing clinicians with an accurate prognostic tool to guide individualized treatment.

We collected clinical data from clinical databases (MIMIC IV and eICU-CRD) of epilepsy patients 24 h after ICU admission. The clinical characteristics of ICU patients with epilepsy were carefully feature selected and processed. MIMIC IV as the training set and eICU-CRD database as the test set. Six models were developed and validated, and the best LightGBM model was selected by performance comparison and analysed for interpretability.

The final cohort comprised 429 patients for training and 1217 for testing. The training set exhibited a 90-day mortality rate of 9.32 %, and the test set had an in-hospital 90-day mortality rate of 4.10 %. Utilizing the LightGBM model, we achieved an AUC of 0.956 in the training set. External validation demonstrated promising results with accuracy of 0.898, precision of 0.975, AUC of 0.781, F1 score of 0.945, highlighting the model's potential for guiding clinical decision-making. Significant factors influencing model performance included the severity of illness, as measured by the OASIS score, and clinical parameters like heart rate and body temperature.

This study introduces a machine learning-based approach to predict mortality risk in ICU epilepsy patients, offering a valuable tool for clinicians to identify high-risk individuals and devise personalized treatment strategies, thus improving patient prognosis and treatment outcomes.