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Risk science applied to major risk events in history
1Robins School of Business, University of Richmond, Richmond, Virginia, USA.
Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|November 30, 2023
Summary
Many historical risk events, often called black swans, may have been foreseeable. This study analyzes past events using risk science principles, identifying opportunities to improve risk assessment and societal safety through better evidence evaluation.
Area of Science:
- Risk Management
- Decision Science
- Societal Safety
Background:
- Major risk events are frequently labeled as unforeseeable 'black swans'.
- Hindsight often reveals that these events could have been anticipated with existing risk policies.
- This highlights potential deficiencies in historical risk assessment and management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze past major risk events through the lens of risk science principles.
- To identify gaps and opportunities within risk science for improved risk assessment.
- To develop a classification system for evidence integrity in risk studies.
Main Methods:
- Exploration of historical risk events.
- Application of risk science principles to analyze these events.
- Examination of consequences, uncertainty, and knowledge related to pre-event risk assessment evidence.
Main Results:
- New insights into foundational risk science issues.
- Development of a system for characterizing evidence quality in risk studies.
- Identification of how risk science contributes to risk management and societal safety.
Conclusions:
- Risk science principles can be applied retrospectively to understand major events.
- Improvements in risk science, particularly in evidence assessment, can enhance societal safety.
- A systematic approach to evidence evaluation is crucial for effective risk management.
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