Surface-Water Nitrate Exposure to World Populations Has Expanded and Intensified during 1970-2010

Excessive nitrate in surface waters deteriorates the water quality and threatens human health. Human activities have caused increased nitrate concentrations in global surface waters over the past 50 years. An assessment of the long-term trajectory of surface-water nitrate exposure to world populations and the associated potential health risks is imperative but lacking. Here, we used global spatially explicit data on surface-water nitrate concentrations and population density, in combination with thresholds for health risks from epidemiological studies, to quantify the long-term changes in surface-water nitrate exposure to world populations at multiple spatial scales. During 1970-2010, global populations potentially affected by acute health risks associated with surface-water nitrate exposure increased from 6 to 60 million persons per year, while populations at potential chronic health risks increased from 169 to 1361 million persons per year. Potential acute risks have increasingly affected Asian countries. Populations potentially affected by chronic risks shifted from dominance by high-income countries (in Europe and North America) to middle-income countries (in Asia and Africa). To mitigate adverse health effects associated with surface-water nitrate exposure, anthropogenic nitrogen inputs to natural environments should be drastically reduced. International and national standards of maximum nitrate contamination may need to be lowered.