Areas with high HIV prevalence: A spatial analysis of nationwide claims data in Germany

We aimed to identify spatial clusters of high HIV prevalence in Germany.

Using nationwide outpatient claims data comprising information of about 88% of the total German population (N = 72 041 683), we examined spatial variations and spatial clusters of high HIV prevalence at the district level (N = 401). People with HIV were identified using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10 codes) B20, B22, and B24 (HIV disease) documented as 'confirmed'.

Among 72 041 683 people with statutory health insurance in Germany in 2021, 72 636 had diagnosed HIV, which corresponds to a prevalence of 101 per 100 000 individuals (0.10%). Of these, 56 895 were males (78%). At a district level, the HIV prevalence varied by a factor of 32 between 13 in a rural district in Bavaria and 417 per 100 000 individuals in the German capital, Berlin. The spatial autocorrelation coefficient was 0.24 (p < 0.0001, Global Moran's I). Several high-prevalence spatial clusters of different sizes were identified, mostly located in western Germany. The largest cluster comprised eight districts in the southern part of Hesse, including the city of Frankfurt and the city of Mainz in Rhineland-Palatinate. The second cluster consisted of four districts in North Rhine-Westphalia, including the cities of Cologne and Düsseldorf. Two districts in southern Germany (Mannheim and Ludwigshafen) formed the third cluster. Only urban districts were observed in spatial clusters of high HIV prevalence.

The current study identified for the first time spatial clusters with high HIV prevalence in Germany. This understanding is of particular importance when planning the general and specialized medical care of patients with HIV and to support preventive measures.