Precision data-driven modeling of cortical dynamics reveals idiosyncratic mechanisms underlying canonical...

Task-free brain activity affords unique insight into the functional structure of brain network dynamics and is a strong marker of individual differences. In this work, we present an algorithmic optimization framework that makes it possible to directly invert and parameterize brain-wide dynamical-systems models involving hundreds of interacting brain areas, from single-subject time-series recordings. This technique provides a powerful neurocomputational tool for interrogating mechanisms underlying individual brain dynamics ("precision brain models") and making quantitative predictions. We extensively validate the models' performance in forecasting future brain activity and predicting individual variability in key M/EEG markers. Lastly, we demonstrate the power of our technique in resolving individual differences in the generation of alpha and beta-frequency oscillations. We characterize subjects based upon model attractor topology and a dynamical-systems mechanism by which these topologies generate individual variation in the expression of alpha vs. beta rhythms. We trace these phenomena back to global variation in excitation-inhibition balance, highlighting the explanatory power of our framework in generating mechanistic insights.