Adaptation cannot keep pace with projected temperature increase.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Adaptation
• Human Well-being

Background:

• A growing argument suggests reduced need for emissions mitigation due to human adaptability to climate change.
• Assessing this claim requires empirical methods to track individual temperature exposure history.

Purpose of the Study:

• To empirically examine the extent of human adaptation to temperature changes.
• To quantify the impact of individualized temperature exposure on well-being.
• To evaluate the necessity of greenhouse gas emissions cuts under future climate scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a longitudinal dataset representative of China.
• Constructed lifetime temperature exposure profiles for individuals based on birth details and migration history.
• Analyzed the relationship between temperature anomalies and individual well-being.

Main Results:

• A 1°C increase in individualized temperature anomalies correlated with a 2% decrease in well-being (1 S.D.).
• Adverse impacts were primarily driven by "hotter-than-expected" weather.
• Adaptation effects diminished future temperature impacts, but acclimatization lagged behind projected increases.

Conclusions:

• Stringent greenhouse gas emissions cuts are essential, even under net-zero scenarios.
• Individual adaptation has limits, and future climate change necessitates mitigation efforts.
• Policy interventions should consider the differential impacts of temperature changes on human well-being.