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Integrating climate model projections into environmental risk assessment: A probabilistic modeling approach
S Jannicke Moe1, Kevin V Brix2,3, Wayne G Landis4
1Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo, Norway.
Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management
|December 12, 2023
Summary
Climate change significantly impacts ecological risk assessments (ERA). This study presents a probabilistic modeling approach to integrate climate projections and uncertainties into ERA for better chemical risk management in a changing climate.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Toxicology
- Ecological Risk Assessment
- Climate Change Science
Background:
- Climate change directly and indirectly influences ecological risk assessment (ERA) components.
- Impacts include altered chemical exposure, toxicity, and species vulnerability due to changing environmental conditions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore a modeling approach for integrating climate change projections into ERA.
- To enhance the assessment of near- and long-term ecological risks from chemical stressors.
Main Methods:
- Utilized state-of-the-art global climate modeling and downscaling techniques.
- Developed a probabilistic modeling approach combining climate variables, uncertainties from ensembles, and ERA pathways.
- Applied Bayesian networks in three case studies for ERA advancements.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated a method to incorporate climate model ensemble data and uncertainties into ERA.
- Showcased advancements in predicting future ecosystem risks using probabilistic modeling.
- Provided examples of successful integration of climate data into ecological risk evaluations.
Conclusions:
- The developed modeling approach aids in assessing and managing risks from chemical stressors under climate change.
- This international collaboration offers a pathway for improved ecological risk assessment in a dynamic climate.
- Enhanced integration of climate science into ERA is crucial for effective environmental protection.
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