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Exact calculation of end-of-outbreak probabilities using contact tracing data.

N V Bradbury^1,2, W S Hart³, F A Lovell-Read³

¹Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface

|December 12, 2023

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Determining when an infectious disease outbreak is over is crucial. A new traced transmission method using contact tracing data can more accurately estimate the end-of-outbreak probability, allowing for quicker relaxation of control measures.

Keywords:

end-of-outbreak declaration infectious disease epidemiology local extinction mathematical modelling public health measures resurgence

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Mathematical Biology
Public Health

Background:

Accurately determining the end of infectious disease outbreaks is a significant public health challenge.
Current methods, like the Nishiura method, approximate the end-of-outbreak probability using transmission models and incidence data.
Estimating this probability is vital for policymakers to decide when to declare an outbreak over and lift control measures.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and validate a novel method for calculating the exact end-of-outbreak probability.
To compare the performance of the new method with existing approaches using real-world outbreak data.
To assess the potential benefits of the new method for public health policy and intervention management.

Main Methods:

Developed the 'traced transmission method' which utilizes detailed transmission tree data (who infected whom) from contact tracing.
Applied both the novel traced transmission method and the existing Nishiura method to historical outbreak data for Ebola virus disease and Nipah virus infection.
Calculated the end-of-outbreak probability using exact calculations based on transmission trees.

Main Results:

The traced transmission method provides an exact calculation of the end-of-outbreak probability when transmission tree data is available.
Application to Ebola and Nipah virus outbreaks showed the traced transmission method identified the end of the outbreak earlier than the Nishiura method.
This suggests that contact tracing data can lead to earlier declarations of outbreak cessation.

Conclusions:

The traced transmission method offers a more precise way to determine the end of infectious disease outbreaks compared to incidence-based approximations.
Incorporating contact tracing data can enable faster de-escalation of public health interventions with minimal risk of resurgence.
This approach can optimize resource allocation and reduce the societal and economic impact of prolonged control measures.