A study on the two-level allocation of carbon emission quotas in China at the provincial level

Carbon emission reduction is an essential means to achieve the "double carbon goal," and the scientific and reasonable allocation of carbon emission quotas (CEQ) is the basis for promoting carbon emission reduction. In this study, the first level was based on the entropy TOPSIS scores of provinces under the principles of fairness, efficiency, sustainability, and feasibility and used the K-mean clustering method to cluster the 30 provinces and allocate the CEQ to each zone group; the second level consolidated the impacts of the four principles and the marginal abatement costs of CO₂ to allocate CEQ to the provinces within the zone group. Finally, each province's initial spatial balance of CEQ (ISBQ) is classified and evaluated. The study shows that the most quotas are for Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Inner Mongolia, and the least for Ningxia, Shanxi, and Guizhou. This study compares the results of CEQ allocation with the current carbon emission scale and finds that 11 provinces, such as Shandong and Hebei, show a deficit in future carbon emission space, and 19 provinces, such as Hainan and Beijing, show a surplus in carbon emission space. Given each province's different emission reduction tasks and pressures, differentiated emission control policies are the key to achieving China's "2030 target".