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Updated: Oct 18, 2026

Exploring the Effects of Atmospheric Forcings on Evaporation: Experimental Integration of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Shallow Subsurface
Published on: June 8, 2015
Forcing closure suggests stronger aerosol forcing and higher climate sensitivity than the consensus
Tianle Yuan1,2, Hua Song1,3, Senne Van Loon4
1Earth Sciences Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.
Abstract:
Forcing together with radiative responses and natural variability has sharply increased Earth's energy imbalance (EEI), a key driver of climate change, between 2003 and 2023. Declining anthropogenic aerosol emissions and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are the leading contributors to the forcing. However, observation-based and model-based forcing estimates disagree on the magnitude of aerosol forcing, particularly for effective radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFACI). Here, we show that two independent observation-based estimates of forcing trends achieve unexpectedly good closure between 2003 and 2023. The corresponding model-based trend is within the uncertainty range of observations but substantially smaller, with most of the difference due to models' underestimation of cloud fraction adjustment to aerosols. Our results suggest a prominent role of aerosols in the recent EEI increase and stronger total historical ERFACI and higher equilibrium climate sensitivity than the current consensus, with a likely range between 2.8° and 4.8°C.
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