Spatial soil loss prediction impacted by long-term land use/land cover change: a case study of Swat District

Soil erosion is a destructive consequence of land degradation caused by deforestation, improper farming practices, overgrazing, and urbanization. This irreversible effect negatively impacts the limited renewable soil resource, causing soil truncation, reduced fertility, and unstable slopes. To address the anticipation of erosion modulus resulting from long-term land use and land cover (LULC) changes, a study was conducted in the Swat District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kpk), Pakistan. The study aimed to predict and evaluate soil erosion concerning these changes using remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS), and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. We also evaluated the impact of the Billion Tree Tsunami Project (BTTP) on soil erosion in the region. Model inputs, such as rainfall erosivity factor, topography factor, land cover and management factor, and erodibility factor, were used to calculate soil erosion. The results revealed that significant soil loss occurred under 2001, 2011, and 2021 LULC conditions, accounting for 67.26%, 61.78%, and 65.32%, falling within the category of low erosion potential. The vulnerable topographical features of the area indicated higher erosion modulus. The maximum soil loss rates observed in 2001, 2011, and 2021 were 80 t/ha^-1/year^-1, 120 t/ha^-1/year^-1, and 96 t/ha^-1/year^-1, respectively. However, the observed reduction in soil loss in 2021 as compared to 2001 and 2011 suggests a positive influence of the BTTP on soil conservation efforts. This study underscores the potential of afforestation initiatives like the BTTP in mitigating soil erosion and highlights the significance of environmental conservation programs in regions with vulnerable topography.