Toward a low carbon path: Do E-commerce reduce CO₂ emissions? Evidence from China

Area of Science:

• Environmental Economics
• Digital Economy Studies
• Climate Change Policy

Background:

• Global consensus on carbon peak and neutrality necessitates strategies for simultaneous emission reduction and green economic growth.
• Developing countries face unique challenges in balancing environmental goals with economic development.
• The impact of e-commerce on CO2 emissions requires empirical investigation, especially concerning policy interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the causal effect of e-commerce development, facilitated by the National E-Commerce Demonstration City (NEDC) policy, on CO2 emissions.
• To identify the key mechanisms through which e-commerce influences carbon emissions.
• To analyze the differential impacts of the NEDC policy across various city types and its socio-economic consequences.

Main Methods:

• Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach examining the NEDC policy's impact from 2006-2017.
• Mechanism analysis exploring industrial structure upgrading, digital finance, and innovation/entrepreneurship.
• Robustness checks including parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and sensitivity analyses.
• Heterogeneity analysis based on economic development level and resource dependence.
• Welfare analysis to assess socio-economic effects.

Main Results:

• The NEDC policy led to a significant reduction in total CO2 emissions by 7.89% and per capita emissions by 1.1146 tons in pilot cities.
• Industrial structure upgrading, digital finance development, and innovation/entrepreneurship growth are key mediating pathways.
• The emission reduction effect is more pronounced in economically developed and non-resource-based cities.
• The policy demonstrates significant positive socio-economic welfare effects.

Conclusions:

• E-commerce development, spurred by policy, can effectively reduce CO2 emissions and contribute to green economic development.
• The digital economy offers a viable pathway for developing countries to achieve carbon neutrality goals.
• Targeted policy implementation, considering city-specific characteristics, can maximize environmental and economic benefits.