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Bayesian model averaging of longitudinal dose-response models
Richard D Payne1, Pallavi Ray1, Mitchell A Thomann2
1Global Statistical Sciences, Eli Lilly & Company, Indianapolis, IN, USA.
Abstract:
Selecting a safe and clinically beneficial dose can be difficult in drug development. Dose justification often relies on dose-response modeling where parametric assumptions are made in advance which may not adequately fit the data. This is especially problematic in longitudinal dose-response models, where additional parametric assumptions must be made. This paper proposes a class of longitudinal dose-response models to be used in the Bayesian model averaging paradigm which improve trial operating characteristics while maintaining flexibility a priori. A new longitudinal model for non-monotonic longitudinal profiles is proposed. The benefits and trade-offs of the proposed approach are demonstrated through a case study and simulation.
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