A species' response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Paleoclimatology

Background:

• Current ecological models predict climate change impacts using species' performance across climate gradients.
• This spatial approach may be flawed if past responses to local climate changes over time are more predictive.

Purpose of the Study:

• To empirically test whether spatial or temporal climate variation better predicts ecological responses to climate change.
• To assess the predictive accuracy of dominant ecological forecasting paradigms.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a new network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series.
• Compared predictions from spatial climate variation with those from temporal climate variation against observed tree growth since 1980.

Main Results:

• Predictions based on spatial climate variation inaccurately reflected observed tree growth responses in magnitude and direction.
• Predictions derived from temporal climate variation successfully replicated observed tree growth responses.
• Future climate scenarios amplified these discrepancies.

Conclusions:

• The dominant paradigm of using spatial climatic variation to forecast ecological impacts may be misleading for decadal to centennial timescales.
• Temporal climate variation offers a more reliable approach for predicting species' responses to climate change.