Projections of human kinship for all countries

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Sociology
• Gerontology

Background:

• Population projections traditionally focus on size and composition, neglecting family network implications.
• Kinship structures are vital for informal care, but their availability depends on living relatives.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project the size, composition, and age distribution of biological kin from 1950 to 2100.
• To analyze the implications of these demographic shifts for informal care provision.

Main Methods:

• Utilized demographic projection models to forecast biological kin availability.
• Analyzed changes in the number and age of relatives for individuals across different time periods.

Main Results:

• Projected a dramatic global decline in the number of living kin per individual (e.g., a 38% decrease for a 65-year-old woman).
• Observed a shift in family network composition, with increases in older kin (grandparents) and decreases in younger kin (grandchildren, cousins).
• Indicated a significant aging of family networks, widening the age gap between individuals and their kin.

Conclusions:

• Projected changes in kin supply will strain social support systems.
• Increased aging of family networks necessitates a re-evaluation of caregiving models.
• Demographic shifts have profound implications for the future of family solidarity and care.