The effect of haze pollution on rural-to-urban migrants' long-term residence intentions

Severe haze pollution in China threatens human health, and its negative effect hampers rural-to-urban migrants' settlement intentions in destination cities. Using the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey Data (CMDS), the satellite data of PM_2.5, and city-level data, this study investigates the impact of haze pollution on rural migrants, long-term residence intentions in Chinese context with IV-probit model, and mediating effect model. Overall, we find an inverted U-shaped relationship between the level of haze pollutants and rural migrants' long-term settlement intentions. Robustness check using multi-measures and thermal inversion as the instrumental variable supports this conclusion. The mediating effect model shows haze pollution plays its role through two opposite mechanisms: signal effect and health effect. When the size of signal effect is larger than health effect, rural migrants are inclined to settle down in their host cities; otherwise, they show lower settlement willingness. The turning point appears when PM_2.5 concentration reaches 38.5 μg/m³; migrants have the highest long-term residence intentions. Currently, the national average PM_2.5 concentration is 40.98 μg/m³, indicating that China is at the stage where the health effect of haze pollution holds a dominant position. Haze pollution has heterogeneous impacts on migrants' residence intentions. From the individual level, the younger generation, female, and higher-educated migrants have a higher tolerance for polluted air. From the city level, migrants who work in the city with 5 to 10 million dwellers have the highest long-term residence intention and are less sensitive to haze pollution. Thus, we propose stringent environmental regulations and more inclined public service policies to migrants.