Regulation Mechanism for Designing Decarbonization Pathways in the Copper Industry Toward Carbon Neutrality

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Materials Science
• Industrial Ecology

Background:

• Global carbon neutrality goals are reshaping power structures and increasing copper demand.
• The copper industry faces pressure to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to meet climate targets.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate decarbonization pathways for China's copper industry.
• To analyze the impact of international trade, circular economy, technology, and environmental markets on GHG emissions.
• To identify effective policy combinations for achieving carbon neutrality in the copper sector.

Main Methods:

• Material Flow Analysis (MFA)
• Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)
• Scenario analysis (12 subscenarios including policy combinations)

Main Results:

• Refined copper consumption in China projected to rise 62.3% by 2060.
• China's copper industry GHG emissions to reach 9.1 Mt CO2e in 2060 without intervention.
• Technology evolution and environmental markets are key for emission reductions (26.4% and 47.2% respectively).
• International trade and circular economy are vital for carbon peaking but long-term supply relies on imports and secondary copper.
• Policy combination scenario shows significant GHG reduction to 0.5 Mt CO2e by 2060.

Conclusions:

• Policy interventions, particularly material substitution and carbon trading, are crucial for net-zero GHG emissions.
• Short-term focus on green circular chains and international circulation patterns for sustainable supply.
• Long-term strategy requires high-quality technological development and enhanced environmental markets for carbon neutrality.