Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jul 6, 2025
Eye-tracking to Distinguish Comprehension-based and Oculomotor-based Regressive Eye Movements During Reading
Published on: October 18, 2018
Can criminal justice be predicted? Using regression analysis to predict judges' decisions on petitions for new
1Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London, 35 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9EZ, UK; Centre for the Forensic Sciences, University College London, 35 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9EZ, UK; Law Faculty, Uppsala University, Sweden, Munken 1, Trädgårdsgatan 20, 753 09 Uppsala, Sweden.
Abstract:
Predictability of legal decisions is usually considered a prerequisite for the rule of law, following the maxim 'like cases should be treated alike'. Yet, this presupposes that the case outcome can be predicted based on the merits of the case, rather than other factors. The purpose of this study was to test whether and to what extent legal decisions on petitions for new criminal trials can be predicted on the basis of other fairly superficial criteria that one could access without even reading the case file, e.g. which Court decided, whether the applicant had legal representation etc. To this end, all petitions for new criminal trials submitted to the Swedish Supreme Court and the six Courts of Appeal in the time period 2010-2020 (n = 3915) were reviewed. This data formed the basis of a regression model which was then used to predict decisions regarding petitions in 2021. On the basis of access to legal representation and crime type, the regression model predicted accurately 100 % of the decisions made in 2021. This raises questions about the evidentiary basis for the decisions and also the role of judges in situations where their decisions are fully predictable.
Related Concept Videos
01:52Regression Toward the Mean
01:11Regression Analysis
In regression analysis, a regression equation is determined based on the line of best fit– a line that best fits the data points plotted in a graph. This line is also called the regression line. The algebraic equation for the regression line is called the regression equation. It is represented as:
01:11Residuals and Least-Squares Property
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
01:25Multiple Regression
Farmers can use multiple regression to determine the crop yield based on more than one factor, such as water availability, fertilizer, soil properties, etc. Here, the crop yield is the response or dependent variable as it depends on the other independent variables. The analysis requires the construction of a scatter plot...
01:07Residual Plots
When the residual values are plotted against the variable x, it is called a residual...
01:24Testing a Claim about Population Proportion
There are two methods of testing a claim about a population proportion: (1) Using the sample proportion from the data where a binomial distribution is approximated to the normal distribution and (2) Using the binomial probabilities calculated from the data.
The first method uses normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution. The requirements are as follows: sample size is large...