Lifecycle model-based evaluation of infant 4CMenB vaccination in the UK

Invasive meningococcal disease, an uncommon but severe disease, imposes catastrophic health and economic burdens. Cost-utility analysis (CUA) assumes separability in lifetime health and economic variables and cannot capture the full value of preventing such burdens. We overcome these limitations with a retrospective societal perspective cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of meningococcal serogroup B vaccination (4CMenB) of one infant cohort in the United Kingdom using a health-augmented lifecycle model (HALM) incorporating health's interactions with consumption, earnings, non-market time and financial risk.

We used a static Markov model of vaccination's health impact and an HALM to estimate the private willingness to pay (PWTP) for the intrinsic and instrumental value of health under perfect capital markets, financial risk protection in the absence of insurance against permanent disability, parental spillovers, and acute phase disability. We estimated social WTP (SWTP) incorporating social severity preferences. We estimated rates of return that inform health payer reimbursement decisions, finance ministry budgeting decisions, and legislature taxation decisions. An expert Advisory Board investigated the validity of applying the HALM to infant 4CMenB.

The PWTP for a 2 + 1 vaccination schedule is £395, comprising £166 of disability insurance value, £79 of positive parental spillover value, £28 in the value of averting acute phase disability, and £122 in residual intrinsic and instrumental value of health. SWTP is £969.

HALM-based CBA provides an empirically richer, more utility-theoretically grounded approach to vaccine evaluation than CUA, demonstrating good value for money for legislatures (based on private values) and for all decision-makers (based on social values).