Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998-2019 and consequences for projections through 2050

We aimed to estimate the absolute and age-standardized number of hip fractures in Sweden during the past two decades to produce time trends and future projections. We used nationwide register data from 1998 to 2019 and a validated algorithm to calculate the annual absolute and age-standardized number of incident hip fractures over time. The total hip fracture burden was 335,399 incident events over the 22 years, with a change from 16,180 in 1998 to 13,929 in 2019, a 14% decrease. One decade after the index hip fracture event, 80% of the patients had died, and 11% had a new hip fracture. After considering the steady growth of the older population, the decline in the age-standardized number of hip fractures from 1998 through 2019 was 29.2% (95% CI 28.1-30.2%) in women and 29.3% (95% CI 27.5-30.7%) in men. With a continued similar reduction in hip fracture incidence, we can predict that 14,800 hip fractures will occur in 2034 and 12,000 in 2050 despite doubling the oldest old (≥ 80 years). Without an algorithm, a naïve estimate of the total number of hip fractures over the study period was 539,947, with a second 10-year hip fracture risk of 35%. We note an ongoing decline in the absolute and age-standardized actual number of hip fractures in Sweden, with consequences for future projections.