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Estimation of Supply and Demand for Cardiologists in Korea
Mira Kim1, Kyunghee Chae1, Ju Mee Wang2
1Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea.
Insights
Korea faces a significant cardiologist shortage within 10 years, with workload increasing by 50%. Proactive workforce planning is essential for cardiovascular disease management.
Area of Science:
- Health Services Research
- Medical Workforce Planning
- Cardiovascular Medicine
Background:
- Cardiovascular disease management requires an adequate supply of specialized physicians.
- Estimating future healthcare workforce needs is crucial for policy development.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project the supply and demand for cardiologists in Korea.
- To inform healthcare policy for optimal cardiovascular care delivery.
Main Methods:
- Utilized historical data on cardiologist inflow and outflow for projections.
- Applied second-order polynomial regression for inflow estimation.
- Employed linear regression to forecast cardiology service demand.
Main Results:
- The number of active cardiologists under 65 is 1,139.
- Projections indicate a peak of 1,344 cardiologists in 2032, followed by a decline.
- Annual heart-related procedures are projected to increase by over 947,000 by 2032.
- Workload per cardiologist, measured by procedures and emergency patients, is expected to rise significantly.
Conclusions:
- A substantial shortage of cardiologists in Korea is anticipated within the next decade.
- Increased patient volume per cardiologist will lead to higher individual workloads.
- A coordinated strategy within the cardiology field is necessary to balance workforce supply and demand.
Background And Objectives:
The objective of this study was to estimate the supply and demand for cardiologists in Korea and provide evidence for healthcare policy to ensure a stable and adequate workforce for optimal cardiovascular disease management.
Methods:
Past trends of inflow and outflow of cardiologists were used to make crude projections, which were then adjusted based on demands of services to obtain final projections. Inflow of cardiologists was estimated using second-order polynomial regression and demand for cardiology care was estimated using linear regression.
Results:
There were 1,139 active cardiologists who were under the age of 65 in clinical practice in Korea. The estimated number of cardiologists from 2022 to 2040 showed that the number of cardiologists would peak at 1,344 in 2032 and gradually decrease thereafter. We also estimated an increase of 947,811 cases of heart-related procedures annually from 2023 to 2032. The number of heart-related procedures per cardiologist would increase 1.4 times from 12,964 in 2023 to 17,862 in 2032. The estimated number of emergency patients per cardiologist under 50 years old would almost double from 544 in 2022 to 987 in 2032.
Conclusions:
We expect significant shortage of cardiologists in Korea within the next 10 years. The number of emergency patients per cardiologist will increase by nearly 50%, leading to high individual workload for cardiologists. To prevent this imbalance between supply and demand, an organized and collective approach by the specialty of cardiology is imperative to produce a balanced workforce.
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