Historical trends in breast cancer presentation among women in Pakistan from join-point regression analysis

Breast cancer prevalence in Pakistan is among the highest in Asian countries. Recent changes in the temporal trends of breast cancer are largely unknown and examination of these trends can provide a direction in national planning for future health programs. The aim of this study was to examine recent changes in breast cancer incidence in Pakistan.

A total of 9,771 diagnosed breast cancer women were registered from 2004 to 2015 in three hospitals of Karachi. Join-point regression analysis was applied to assessing the age-standardized breast cancer presentation trends for each five-year age group. Age-specific average annual percentage changes were also calculated to assess the proportion of women with increased or decreased incidence of breast cancer.

Age-standardized rates of breast cancer steadily increased from 24.7 per 100,000 in 2004, to 45.4 per 100,000 in 2015. The analytical trend based on the join-point model showed an average percentage increase breast cancer prevalence of 5.4 (95% CI = 3.1, 7.8). Significantly higher prevalence rates were identified among women aged 40-44 years and 65-69 years with an average percentage change of 18.5 (95% CI = 2.3, 37.2) and 14.3 (95% CI = 2.2, 27.9) respectively in the four years from 2011 to 2015.

The findings indicate the trend in age-standardized prevalence increased significantly in all age groups with noticeably larger increases observed among older and post-menopausal women from 2011 to 2015. The results warrant the need for more targeted interventions to high-risk groups and a sound foundation for cancer control program planning and policy development in Pakistan to reduce the increasing incidence of breast cancer.