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Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836-2016.

Michael Geruso^1,2, Dean Spears^1,3,4,5, Ishaana Talesara¹

¹University of Texas at Austin.

American Economic Journal. Applied Economics

|January 12, 2024

Summary

US presidential election inversions, where the popular vote winner loses, have been likely since the 1800s. Close elections have a 40% chance of inversion, showing they are not rare statistical flukes.

Keywords:

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Area of Science:

Political Science
Electoral Studies
American Politics

Background:

US presidential elections have occasionally resulted in inversions, where the popular vote winner does not win the presidency.
These inversions have often been perceived as statistical anomalies or rare occurrences.

Purpose of the Study:

To analyze the historical likelihood of popular vote inversions in US presidential elections.
To determine if inversions are statistically probable events rather than flukes.
To assess the stability of inversion probability across different historical periods.

Main Methods:

Statistical analysis of historical US presidential election data.
Calculation of conditional probabilities for inversions based on popular vote margins.
Comparison of inversion likelihood across distinct historical eras.

Main Results:

Popular vote inversions have been ex ante likely in US presidential elections since the early 1800s.
Elections with a popular vote margin within 1 point have approximately a 40% expected probability of being an inversion.
This conditional probability remained stable across historical periods despite significant changes in voting demographics and political landscapes.

Conclusions:

Inversions in US presidential elections are not statistical flukes but have been consistently probable events.
The relative rarity of inversions is attributable to the limited number of close elections throughout US history.
Understanding the probability of inversions is crucial for electoral analysis and reform discussions.