Predicting orthophosphate in feces and manure from dairy cattle

Dairy cattle excreta are a valuable source of orthophosphate (Ortho-P), an inorganic form of phosphorus (P) that is readily available for microorganisms, plant growth, and development. There is, however, a growing environmental concern about the potential negative environmental impact of excessive amounts of Ortho-P excretion, which can lead to the eutrophication of water bodies. As a result, the development of mathematical equations to quantify and manage Ortho-P excretion on dairy farms could prove valuable for environmental sustainability. This study aimed to use literature data to develop empirical predictions for Ortho-P (g/kg dry matter [DM]) excretion using total P (TP [g/kg DM]) content of dairy cattle feces (Ortho-P_f) and manure (Ortho-P_m). Data sets from studies that evaluated and characterized the different forms of P in feces and manure from dairy cattle were compiled. After outlier exclusion, the final retained database for feces included 37 treatment means from 4 published papers while the manure comprised 23 treatment means from 7 published papers. A linear-mixed model was used to develop the predictive equations, incorporating the random effect of the study. A leave-one-out cross-validation procedure was used to evaluate the predictive ability of the developed models, whereby studies were regarded as folds. The fecal equation was determined as Ortho-P_f (g/kg DM) = -2.447 (0.572) + 0.966 (0.083) × TP (g/kg DM) (R² = 0.79) and resulted in a root mean square prediction error as a percentage of mean observed value (RMSPE, %) of 32.8% and error due to random sources of 97.6%. Additionally, the manure equation was determined as Ortho-P_m (g/kg) = -0.204 (0.446) + 0.590 (0.065) × TP (g/kg) (R² = 0.77) and had an RMSPE of 43.3% with a random error of 93.9%. Both models revealed minimal mean and slope biases on feces and manure data. Findings suggest that these sets of equations can be used to estimate excreted Ortho-P from total excreted P, helping nutritionists and farmers to understand the impact of dietary P changes on the environment. Further, these equations can be incorporated into extant models such as the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System (CNCPS) to aid in understanding and mitigating P and Ortho-P excretion from dairy cattle and to clarify the portion of P that migrates more rapidly into watersheds.