How changes in landscape patterns affect the carbon emission: a case study in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle,...

The construction of low-carbon cities is an optimal means to balance the competing interests of economic growth and carbon emission reduction. This study focuses on the optimization of land use patterns with a low carbon orientation, taking the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle (CCEC), the fourth-largest economic growth pole in China, as an example. The panel data regression analysis is carried out to identify the dynamic correlations between the landscape changes and the carbon emission induced by land use and land cover change (LICE) of each city, each year, for the last 20 years. The results show that the CCEC has witnessed a 142.85% increase in carbon emissions during the period studied, with the growth of built-up land contributing 94% of total carbon emissions from 2000 to 2020. By constructing the panel regression model, this study finds that the intensity of carbon emissions increases significantly as the urban built-up land area and the agglomeration of artificial structures increase. The conversion of cropland, which dominates the landscape pattern, to built-up land has led to further fragmentation of the landscape pattern and a reduction in LPI, thus increasing carbon emissions. And a more complex regional landscape pattern will have a positive impact on carbon emission reduction. Based on the above findings, suggestions are articulated for carbon emission reduction.