Optimization of time interval for the measurement of plasma lipids for cardiovascular disease risk assessment

Lipid testing for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk is often performed every 4-6 years, but we hypothesized that the optimum time interval may vary depending on baseline risk.

Using lipid values and other risk factors from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n = 9,704), we calculated a 10-year risk score with the pooled-cohort equations. Future risk scores were predicted by increasing age and projecting systolic blood pressure (SBP) and lipid changes, using the mean-percentile age group change in NHANES for SBP (n = 17,329) and the Lifelines Cohort study for lipids (n = 133,540). The crossing of high and intermediate-risk thresholds were calculated by time to determine optimum intervals for lipid testing.

Time to crossing risk thresholds depends on baseline risk, but the mean increase in the risk score plateaus at 1% per year for those with a baseline 10-year risk greater than 15%. Based on these findings, we recommend the following maximum time intervals for lipid testing: baseline risk < 15%: 5-years, 16%: 4-years, 17%: 3-years, 18%: 2-years, and 19%: ≤1-year.

Testing patients for lipids who have a higher baseline risk more often could identify high-risk patients sooner, allowing for earlier and more effective therapeutic intervention.