Spatial analysis of future climate risk to stormwater infrastructure

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Climate science
• Hydrology

Background:

• Climate change is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of precipitation events globally.
• Stormwater infrastructure performance and design are critically dependent on precipitation patterns.
• Existing infrastructure design standards may not adequately account for future climate change impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To conduct a national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on precipitation, stormwater runoff, and infrastructure design.
• To provide spatially detailed information for local stormwater managers.
• To evaluate infrastructure performance against a range of expected future precipitation events.

Main Methods:

• Adjusted NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation intensity-duration-frequency analyses based on multiple future climate scenarios.
• Geographically conditioned regression kriging for spatial interpolation of climate change impacts.
• Screening assessment of potential effects on stormwater runoff and storage requirements.

Main Results:

• Increased intensity of 24-hour precipitation events with 2-year or greater recurrence is projected for most U.S. regions.
• Anticipated increases in stormwater runoff volumes.
• Potential need for enhanced stormwater storage capacity.
• Less significant changes observed for more frequent events, such as the 90th percentile event.

Conclusions:

• Future climate change is likely to increase the intensity of significant precipitation events across the U.S.
• Stormwater infrastructure may require design adjustments to accommodate increased runoff.
• A spatially detailed, national-scale assessment is crucial for effective adaptation planning.