Spatial constraints and stochastic seeding subvert microbial arms race

Surface attached communities of microbes grow in a wide variety of environments. Often, the size of these microbial community is constrained by their physical surroundings. However, little is known about how size constraints of a colony impact the outcome of microbial competitions. Here, we use individual-based models to simulate contact killing between two bacterial strains with different killing rates in a wide range of community sizes. We found that community size has a substantial impact on outcomes; in fact, in some competitions the identity of the most fit strain differs in large and small environments. Specifically, when at a numerical disadvantage, the strain with the slow killing rate is more successful in smaller environments than in large environments. The improved performance in small spaces comes from finite size effects; stochastic fluctuations in the initial relative abundance of each strain in small environments lead to dramatically different outcomes. However, when the slow killing strain has a numerical advantage, it performs better in large spaces than in small spaces, where stochastic fluctuations now aid the fast killing strain in small communities. Finally, we experimentally validate these results by confining contact killing strains of Vibrio cholerae in transmission electron microscopy grids. The outcomes of these experiments are consistent with our simulations. When rare, the slow killing strain does better in small environments; when common, the slow killing strain does better in large environments. Together, this work demonstrates that finite size effects can substantially modify antagonistic competitions, suggesting that colony size may, at least in part, subvert the microbial arms race.