Optimizing spatial patterns of ecosystem services in the Chang-Ji-Tu region (China) through Bayesian Belief Network...

To foster an ecological civilization and ensure sustainable development of population resources, a critical focus of China's land spatial planning initiatives is the complex interplay among the prudent utilization of regional natural resources, stable socio-economic growth, and ecological environment preservation and governance. This interplay is vital for improving the population's quality of life, enhancing national resilience, and fostering the development of an ecological civilization. Within this context, this research focuses on the Chang-Ji-Tu region, employing a hybrid InVEST-Bayesian Belief Network-PLUS model. This approach facilitates a comprehensive assessment of habitat quality (HQ), carbon sequestration (CS), soil conservation (SC), crop production (CP), and total ecosystem services (TES) spanning 2005 to 2020, to optimize spatial structures based on these assessments. The findings indicate significant insights: (1) temporally, both HQ and CS exhibit an initial ascent followed by a subsequent decline, while SC demonstrates a rise, subsequent decrease, and then a gradual increase. CP shows a consistent increase, and TES initially decreases before experiencing a rise. Spatially, regions exhibiting high CP are primarily located in the northwest, in contrast to the southeast, demonstrating lower values. Conversely, HQ, CS, and SC exhibit lower values in the northwest and higher values in the southeast. TES exhibits considerable variability in the northwest and a more equilibrated distribution in the southeast. (2) A positive correlation is observed between land use/cover changes (LUCC) and HQ, CS, and SC, while a negative correlation is noted with CP and TES. (3) In exploring potential scenarios for economic development (ED), natural development (ND), and ecological protection (EP) in 2035, our study categorizes TES into distinct zones: ecological protection prohibited zones, ecological buffer prohibited zones, construction and development suitable zones, and restricted zones for arable land protection. This study, grounded in the current ecosystem status, thoroughly analyzes spatial structural optimization, offering crucial insights for future land spatial planning and ecological restoration.