Colorectal cancer's burden attributable to a diet high in processed meat in the Belt and Road Initiative countries

Colorectal cancer (CRC) plays a significant role in morbidity, mortality, and economic cost in the Belt and Road Initiative ("B and R") countries. In addition, these countries have a substantial consumption of processed meat. However, the burden and trend of CRC in relation to the consumption of a diet high in processed meat (DHPM-CRC) in these "B and R" countries remain unknown.

To analyze the burden and trend of DHPM-CRC in the "B and R" countries from 1990 to 2019.

We used the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study to collate information regarding the burden of DHPM-CRC. Numbers and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of deaths along with the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were determined among the "B and R" countries in 1990 and 2019. Using joinpoint regression analysis, the average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to analyze the temporal trends of age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDALR) from 1990 to 2019 and in the final decade (2010-2019).

We found geographical differences in the burden of DHPM-CRC among "B and R" countries, with the three highest-ranking countries being the Russian Federation, China, and Ukraine in 1990, and China, the Russian Federation, and Poland in 2019. The burden of DHPM-CRC generally increased in most member countries from 1990 to 2019 (all P < 0.05). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs in DHPM-CRC were 3151.15 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 665.74-5696.64] and 83249.31 (95%UI 15628.64-151956.31) in China in 2019. However, the number of deaths (2627.57-2528.51) and DALYs (65867.39-55378.65) for DHPM-CRC in the Russian Federation has declined. The fastest increase in ASDALR for DHPM-CRC was observed in Vietnam, Southeast Asia, with an AAPC value of 3.90% [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.63%-4.16%], whereas the fastest decline was observed in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia, with an AAPC value of -2.05% (95% CI: -2.37% to -1.73%). A substantial upward trend in ASR of mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and DALYs from DHPM-CRC changes in 1990-2019 and the final decade (2010-2019) for most Maritime Silk Route members in East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East, as well as Central Europe, while those of the most Land Silk Route members in Central Asia and Eastern Europe have decreased markedly (all P < 0.05). The ASDALR for DHPM-CRC increased more in males than in females (all P < 0.05). For those aged 50-74 years, the ASDALR for DHPM-CRC in 40 members exhibited an increasing trend, except for 20 members, including 7 members in Central Asia, Maldives, and 12 high or high-middle social development index (SDI) members in other regions (all P < 0.05).

The burden of DHPM-CRC varies substantially across "B and R" countries and threatens public health. Relevant evidence-based policies and interventions tailored to the different trends of countries in SDIs or Silk Routes should be adopted to reduce the future burden of CRC in "B and R" countries via extensive collaboration.