Child Health and the Pediatric Hematology-Oncology Workforce: 2020-2040

Area of Science:

• Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce Analysis
• Healthcare Workforce Planning
• Pediatric Oncology and Hematology

Background:

• Pediatric hematology-oncology (PHO) is a well-established subspecialty caring for young patients with complex cancers and blood disorders.
• The current supply of clinically active PHO subspecialists in the U.S. is not well-defined, with some suggesting potential geographic oversaturation.
• Understanding future workforce needs is critical for ensuring adequate patient access to specialized pediatric care.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project the future supply of pediatric hematology-oncology subspecialists in the United States through 2040.
• To identify potential geographic maldistribution patterns within the PHO workforce.
• To inform strategies for optimizing the PHO subspecialty workforce for improved patient outcomes.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a microsimulation model to forecast the PHO workforce supply.
• Incorporated data from the American Board of Pediatrics and existing literature.
• Analyzed workforce projections under various scenarios, including changes in clinical time and fellowship sizes.

Main Results:

• The model predicts a 66% growth in the PHO subspecialist workforce by 2040 under baseline assumptions.
• Alternative scenarios indicated a potential growth variation of ±18% from the baseline.
• Significant geographic maldistribution is forecasted, with a projected 2.9-fold higher workforce equivalent per child in New England compared to the Mountain division by 2040.

Conclusions:

• The PHO subspecialty workforce is projected to grow substantially by 2040.
• Anticipated geographic maldistribution necessitates proactive interventions to ensure equitable care access.
• Educational, practice, policy, and research initiatives are recommended to address workforce challenges and enhance patient care.