Child Health and the US Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce: Planning for the Future

Area of Science:

• Pediatric subspecialty workforce analysis
• Child health services research
• Healthcare policy

Background:

• Increasing prevalence of pediatric chronic conditions and mental health disorders, exacerbated by social determinants of health.
• Growing concerns regarding the capacity of pediatric subspecialists to meet current and future child healthcare demands.
• Recognized benefits of pediatric subspecialty care, including improved outcomes and reduced costs compared to adult providers.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide a rigorous analysis of the projected pediatric subspecialty workforce in the United States.
• To forecast the supply of pediatric subspecialists from 2020 to 2040 at national and subnational levels.
• To inform policy and planning for child healthcare services.

Main Methods:

• Development of a pediatric subspecialty workforce model.
• Forecasting specialist supply for 14 core pediatric subspecialties.
• Utilizing US Census Bureau child population projections.

Main Results:

• Analysis of demographic, practice, and geographic variations across 15 core pediatric subspecialties.
• Forecasting of specialist supply for 14 subspecialties from 2020 to 2040.
• Identification of potential future workforce gaps.

Conclusions:

• The projected pediatric subspecialty workforce may be insufficient to meet the needs of a growing child population with complex health conditions.
• Understanding workforce demographics and geographic distribution is crucial for equitable care access.
• Further research and policy interventions are needed to ensure adequate pediatric subspecialty care financing and availability.