Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Nephrology Subspecialty Workforce: 2020-2040

Area of Science:

• Pediatric Nephrology
• Health Workforce Research
• Subspecialty Care

Background:

• Pediatric nephrology combines acute and chronic care for children with kidney disease.
• Trainee interest in pediatric nephrology has declined over two decades.
• Concerns about the pediatric nephrology workforce are growing due to limited data.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project the future supply of pediatric nephrologists from 2020 to 2040.
• To analyze factors influencing workforce supply, including population growth and trainee interest.
• To identify potential workforce shortages and geographic disparities.

Main Methods:

• Utilized existing literature and American Board of Pediatrics data.
• Employed a workforce projection model developed by the Carolina Health Workforce Research Center.
• Modeled alternate scenarios adjusting for trainee interest, clinical effort, and attrition.

Main Results:

• Baseline model predicts 26% growth in clinical work equivalents by 2040.
• Widening geographic disparities exacerbate the mismatch between supply and demand.
• Worst-case scenario projects only 13% growth, maintaining a strained workforce.

Conclusions:

• Urgent reforms in education, training, remuneration, practice models, and policy are necessary.
• The current trajectory risks an inadequate pediatric nephrology workforce to meet future demand.
• Addressing declining interest and improving workforce distribution are critical.