Projecting the Future Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce: Summary and Recommendations.

Area of Science:

• Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce Analysis
• Healthcare Delivery Systems
• Child Health Policy

Background:

• The United States faces challenges in its pediatric subspecialty workforce.
• Children's healthcare needs are evolving, with increasing demand for mental health services and attention to social drivers of health like racism.

Purpose of the Study:

• To summarize findings on the pediatric subspecialty workforce for 15 subspecialties.
• To project workforce supply through 2040 and identify key challenges and recommendations.

Main Methods:

• Microsimulation modeling to forecast workforce supply.
• Analysis of workforce characteristics, healthcare delivery challenges, and commonalities across subspecialties.

Main Results:

• Projected uneven growth and worsening geographic maldistribution of pediatric subspecialists.
• Identified challenges including physician shortages, misaligned training locations, subspecialization tensions, funding disparities (Medicare vs. Medicaid), and low compensation.

Conclusions:

• Urgent need for policy changes, innovative care models, and improved training, recruitment, and retention strategies.
• Future research is essential to ensure the pediatric subspecialty workforce meets the needs of all children.
• Lack of a central authority to monitor and inform pediatric subspecialty care was identified as a significant challenge.