Schrödinger's Range-Shifting Cat: How Skewed Temperature Dependence Impacts Persistence with Climate Change

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Theoretical Ecology

Background:

• Most species exhibit asymmetric responses to climate variables.
• Analytical models often assume symmetric responses, leading to unknown consequences for climate change predictions.
• Understanding asymmetric responses is crucial for accurate ecological forecasting.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop analytical models incorporating asymmetric species responses to climate change.
• To investigate the impact of performance curve asymmetry on population persistence, range shifts, and sensitivity.
• To provide insights for conservation strategies for range-shifting species.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a mapping of population dynamics to quantum mechanics problems.
• Derived analytical expressions for population persistence, range-climate lag, and sensitivity location.
• Incorporated parameters like climate velocity, dispersal, growth rate, niche width, variability, and performance curve skew.
• Validated findings with a metapopulation simulation.

Main Results:

• Asymmetry significantly influences population persistence, range-climate lags, and sensitivity.
• Surprisingly, the direction of performance curve asymmetry (warm vs. cool skewed) had minimal impact on persistence and lags.
• Key factors influencing conservation benefits include proximity to environmental optimum and shallowness of environmental dependence.

Conclusions:

• Species' environmental performance curve features critically affect climate change responses.
• Conservation efforts should consider the shape and sensitivity of species' environmental niches.
• The study provides a more nuanced understanding of ecological responses to a changing climate.