Risk prediction models in emergency surgery: Protocol for a scoping review.

Area of Science:

• Emergency medicine
• Surgical outcomes
• Health services research

Background:

• Risk prediction models are crucial for emergency surgery, aiding in triage and benchmarking.
• Existing models are sometimes used beyond their original intended purposes.
• A comprehensive overview of these models is needed to identify knowledge gaps.

Purpose of the Study:

• To conduct a scoping review of risk prediction models in emergency surgery.
• To identify existing models, their variables, surgical specialties, validation status, and intended purposes.
• To highlight strengths, limitations, and knowledge gaps in the current literature.

Main Methods:

• A scoping review following PRISMA-ScR guidelines.
• Searches of Medline, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library across all study designs.
• Descriptive summary of findings and modified GRADE approach for evidence certainty.

Main Results:

• The review will detail the types of risk prediction models used in emergency surgery.
• It will analyze the variables, surgical specialties, and validation of these models.
• Strengths, limitations, and purposes of included models will be summarized.

Conclusions:

• This scoping review will provide a comprehensive summary of risk prediction models in emergency surgery.
• It aims to identify critical knowledge gaps in the current literature.
• The findings will inform future research and clinical application of these models.