Rational thresholding of circulating tumor DNA concentration for improved surveillance of metastatic breast cancer

The use of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) concentration for metastatic cancer surveillance is promising, but uncertainty remains about cut-offs with clinical validity.

This observational study recruited 136 subjects with advanced metastatic breast cancer (irrespective of ERBB2/hormone receptor status) for sequencing of their primary tumor in search for PIK3CA hotspot variants amenable for monitoring by droplet digital PCR (ddPCR). The study analyzed 341 on-treatment samples from 19 patients with PIK3CA variants H1047R or E545K enrolled for long-term (median 85 weeks, range 13-125 weeks), frequent (every 3-5 weeks, median of 14 time points per subject, range 2-29) blood sampling for ctDNA quantification by ddPCR, orthogonally validated by deep sequencing. The diagnostic accuracy of ctDNA versus cancer antigen 15-3 (CA15-3) concentrations to predict disease progression within 12 weeks was investigated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Likelihood ratios were used for rational selection of ctDNA result intervals.

ctDNA [area under the ROC curve (AUC) 0.848, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.791-0.895] showed superior diagnostic performance than CA15-3 (AUC 0.670, 95% CI 0.601-0.735, P < 0.001) to predict clinical progression within 12 weeks. ctDNA levels below 10 mutant allele copies/ml had high negative predictive value (88%), while levels above 100 copies/ml detected 64% of progressions 10 weeks earlier versus standard of care. Logistic regression analysis indicated complementary value of ctDNA and the presence of two consecutive CA15-3 rises, resulting in a model with 86% (95% CI 74% to 93%) positive predictive value and a clinically meaningful result in 89% of blood draws.

Intensive ctDNA quantification improves metastatic breast cancer surveillance and enables individualized risk-based scheduling of clinical care.