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The characteristic time scale of cultural evolution
Tobias Wand1,2, Daniel Hoyer3,4
1Institut für Theoretische Physik, Fachbereich 11 Physik, Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster/University of Münster, Münster 48149, Germany.
PNAS Nexus
|February 7, 2024
Summary
Social complexity evolves similarly across diverse regions over approximately 2,500 years. This lengthy process involves both internal developments and external influences in the evolution of complex social formations.
Area of Science:
- Social Sciences
- History
- Anthropology
Background:
- Researchers have long studied the evolution of complex social formations.
- Understanding commonalities and divergences in social complexity is crucial.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine if a characteristic time course exists for the evolution of social complexity.
- To analyze the endogenous growth of social complexity across different geographic areas.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the Seshat: Global History Databank for 23 geographic areas.
- Applied logistic regression modeling to overlapping time series data.
- Employed bootstrapping to identify periods of extensive growth in social complexity.
Main Results:
- A logistic regression model demonstrated convincing out-of-sample predictions.
- A characteristic period of extensive growth in social complexity was identified as approximately 2,500 years.
- Analysis of endogenous growth yielded similar logistic regression curves.
Conclusions:
- Different geographic areas exhibit a similar trajectory in the evolution of social complexity.
- The evolution of social complexity is a protracted process.
- Both internal developments and external influences shape social complexity over time.
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