Promoting healthy populations as a pandemic preparedness strategy: a simulation study from Mexico

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Health Economics

Background:

• High obesity prevalence in Mexico significantly impacted COVID-19 pandemic outcomes.
• Mexico faced a severe COVID-19 burden, exacerbated by underlying population health issues.
• The potential reduction in COVID-19 deaths from pre-pandemic obesity interventions remains unquantified.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the potential reduction in COVID-19 deaths by addressing obesity in Mexico.
• To model the impact of hypothetical scenarios involving lower population body mass index (BMI).
• To assess the effectiveness of specific public health interventions in mitigating COVID-19 mortality.

Main Methods:

• A dynamic epidemic model utilizing nationwide data was employed.
• The study compared actual COVID-19 deaths with simulated outcomes under varied BMI scenarios.
• Interventions modeled included historical BMI changes, front-of-pack warning labels, and increased taxes on unhealthy foods.

Main Results:

• Obesity was linked to 52.5% of COVID-19 deaths in adults aged 20-64 and 23.8% in older adults.
• Maintaining Mexico's 2000 BMI distribution could have reduced COVID-19 deaths by 20.6%.
• Earlier food labeling (2018) could have averted 6.2% of deaths; doubled unhealthy food taxes could have reduced deaths by 4.1%.

Conclusions:

• Addressing population-level obesity and non-communicable chronic diseases is crucial for pandemic preparedness.
• Systemic public health interventions targeting underlying health conditions can substantially reduce pandemic-related mortality.
• Integrating chronic disease management into pandemic planning is a vital strategy for future health crises.