Macroecological predictors of evolutionary and plastic potential do not apply at microgeographic scales for a...

Rapid evolutionary adaptation could reduce the negative impacts of climate change if sufficient heritability of key traits exists under future climate conditions. Plastic responses to climate change could also reduce negative impacts. Understanding which populations are likely to respond via evolution or plasticity could therefore improve estimates of extinction risk. A large body of research suggests that the evolutionary and plastic potential of a population can be predicted by the degree of spatial and temporal climatic variation it experiences. However, we know little about the scale at which these relationships apply. Here, we test if spatial and temporal variation in temperature affects genetic variation and plasticity of fitness and a key thermal tolerance trait (critical thermal maximum; CT_max) at microgeographic scales using a metapopulation of Daphnia magna in freshwater rock pools. Specifically, we ask if (a) there is a microgeographic adaptation of CT_max and fitness to differences in temperature among the pools, (b) pools with greater temporal temperature variation have more genetic variation or plasticity in CT_max or fitness, and (c) increases in temperature affect the heritability of CT_max and fitness. Although we observed genetic variation and plasticity in CT_max and fitness, and differences in fitness among pools, we did not find support for the predicted relationships between temperature variation and genetic variation or plasticity. Furthermore, the genetic variation and plasticity we observed in CT_max are unlikely sufficient to reduce the impacts of climate change. CT_max plasticity was minimal and heritability was 72% lower when D. magna developed at the higher temperatures predicted under climate change. In contrast, the heritability of fitness increased by 53% under warmer temperatures, suggesting an increase in overall evolutionary potential unrelated to CT_max under climate change. More research is needed to understand the evolutionary and plastic potential under climate change and how that potential will be altered in future climates.