[Experiences in human resources planning for health: The case of physicians. Data and models. SESPAS Report 2024]

Virtually all developed countries conduct physician planning exercises. We can learn from successful experiences. The modeling and projection of supply is technically complex, but it is a technical matter, whereas the assessment of demand or need, and therefore the outcome in terms of deficit or surplus, requires standards, usually in population ratios, which are based on expert judgments and belong to the normative universe. One type of technical problem insufficiently solved is that of converting "heads" into full time equivalents. Fortunately, progress is being made in the right direction. We need more and better information, in particular the State Register of Health Professionals, but even with the limitations of the data, it is necessary to plan. The Ministry of Health, the Autonomous Regions and other professional and union organizations regularly carry out planning exercises. We have high rates of physicians and graduates, and low rates of nurses, a growing number of physicians in both public and private practice, and short-term deficits in some specialties, particularly family medicine, which urgently needs specific incentives to stimulate vocations. The numbers tell only part of the story. The imbalances in the educational and labor markets are not resolved by creating vacancies, but rather by reforming the regulatory framework, incentive systems and public management slack to compete with the private sector in attracting and retaining talent.