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Opinion Formation in the World Trade Network.

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Summary

A new model shows that by 2014, most countries would prefer trading in the hypothetical BRI currency over the US dollar. This economic model analyzes currency influence in global trade networks.

Keywords:
complex networksinternational tradeopinion formation model

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Area of Science:

  • Economic modeling
  • International trade analysis
  • Network science

Background:

  • The influence of economic organizations and currency preferences in global trade is complex.
  • Understanding currency dynamics is crucial for analyzing international economic relations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the world influence of economic organizations using an opinion formation approach.
  • To analyze the battle between major currencies (USD, BRI, EUR, CNY) in the international trade network.

Main Methods:

  • Constructed a world trade network from 2010-2020 using UN Comtrade data.
  • Developed an opinion formation model simulating currency preference battles.
  • Employed a Monte Carlo process to determine trade currency preferences for non-core countries.

Main Results:

  • From 2014, a majority of countries favored the hypothetical BRI currency over USD.
  • The Monte Carlo simulation resulted in steady states with distinct BRI and USD preference groups, plus a swing group.
  • Analysis of three currencies (USD, BRI, EUR) showed EUR preference aligning with swing countries from the two-currency model.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides insights into currency influence and shifts in global trade preferences.
  • The model highlights the potential rise of alternative currencies like BRI against established ones like USD.
  • Further analysis explored the economic influence of OPEC+ economies via the OPE currency.