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Area of Science:

  • Medical Education
  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Clinical Decision-Making

Background:

  • Physicians' high confidence is linked to medical errors.
  • Experimental data on confidence's impact on diagnostic accuracy is limited.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the effect of experimentally induced high confidence on physicians' diagnostic accuracy.
  • To explore the relationship between confidence levels, decision-making time, and accuracy in complex clinical scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Forty internal medicine residents were randomly assigned to high-confidence (experimental) or low-confidence (control) groups.
  • Participants diagnosed eight complex clinical vignettes.
  • Confidence levels, response times, and diagnostic accuracy were measured.

Main Results:

  • The high-confidence group reported significantly higher confidence levels (0.75 vs. 0.61).
  • No significant differences were observed in diagnostic accuracy between the groups.
  • Response times did not significantly differ, though the high-confidence group trended towards quicker decisions.

Conclusions:

  • Experimentally increasing physician confidence did not impact diagnostic accuracy in this study.
  • Findings suggest overconfidence may be a stable personality trait rather than a easily manipulated characteristic.
  • Further research should explore overconfidence as a personality trait in medical decision-making.