Frontal NCAP performance and field injury over 40 years
1ProBiomechanics LLC, Bloomfield Hills, Michigan.
Traffic Injury Prevention
|February 28, 2024
Summary
Vehicle safety has improved since 1980, but crash test performance has plateaued in recent decades. Real-world injury risks remain unchanged, suggesting current testing methods lack relevance for improving occupant safety.
Area of Science:
- Automotive safety engineering
- Biomechanics
- Traffic safety research
Background:
- Vehicle safety has evolved significantly over five decades, driven by regulatory and testing initiatives.
- The New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) aims to improve vehicle safety through standardized crash testing.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze trends in vehicle and occupant responses during 35 mph NCAP tests across five decades (1980-2020).
- To determine the risk of serious injury (MAIS 3+F) by vehicle model year using real-world crash data.
- To explore safety trends in frontal crashes over 50 model years.
Main Methods:
- Reanalyzed triaxial acceleration data from NCAP tests (1980-2020) for consistent head and chest responses.
- Determined serious injury risk (MAIS 3+F) for drivers and front passengers using National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) and Crash Injury Research and Engineering (CIREN) data (1989-2020).
- Analyzed data categorized into four model year groups: 1961-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009, and 2010-2021.
Main Results:
- While initial improvements in head injury criteria (HIC15) and chest acceleration were observed by 1990, significant advancements have plateaued in the last 20 years.
- Real-world injury risk data shows no meaningful change in the past 50 model years, with belted driver MAIS 3+F risk at 1.66% (1961-1989) and 1.39% (2010-2021).
- NCAP tests represent a small fraction of real-world crash exposures and severe injury causation.
Conclusions:
- Current NCAP testing may lack real-world relevance, as manufacturers focus on 'tuning' for star ratings without substantial improvements in field injury risks.
- The focus on high-severity NCAP crashes may overlook the majority of severe injuries occurring in lower-severity real-world incidents.
- Recommendations include re-evaluating NCAP protocols, such as dummy selection and injury criteria, to better reflect real-world crash scenarios and drive meaningful safety advancements.
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