Mitigating nitrogen losses with almost no crop yield penalty during extremely wet years

Climate change-induced precipitation anomalies during extremely wet years (EWYs) result in substantial nitrogen losses to aquatic ecosystems (N_w). Still, the extent and drivers of these losses, and effective mitigation strategies have remained unclear. By integrating global datasets with well-established crop modeling and machine learning techniques, we reveal notable increases in N_w, ranging from 22 to 56%, during historical EWYs. These pulses are projected to amplify under the SSP126 (SSP370) scenario to 29 to 80% (61 to 120%) due to the projected increases in EWYs and higher nitrogen input. We identify the relative precipitation difference between two consecutive years (diffPr) as the primary driver of extreme N_w. This finding forms the basis of the CLimate Extreme Adaptive Nitrogen Strategy (CLEANS), which scales down nitrogen input adaptively to diffPr, leading to a substantial reduction in extreme N_w with nearly zero yield penalty. Our results have important implications for global environmental sustainability and while safeguarding food security.